Sioux Falls 4th of July Weather Forecast: Rain or Fireworks?

It's said that out here on the great plains, predicting the weather more than a day out is a difficult thing to do. In some places, like Miami, you can get a solid 7 days out, in the southwest U.S., it's five days.

The Fourth of July is this weekend. Independence Day is usually marked by more outdoor activities than any other holiday. We're grilling, swimming, boating, camping, and of course, blowing up fireworks.

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But, we've had years where a stormy day has snuck up and ruined the big fireworks at the end of the day. Forecasting the weather at the end of the week, from the beginning of the week, is hard.

Each year, the National Weather Service gets better and better at forecasting. More data is gathered and analytical tools improve. But South Dakota is still South Dakota, and we should remain prepared for surprises.

The folks at the National Weather Service office in Sioux Falls are telling us that as of today, Tuesday, July 1, 2025, the forecast for the 4th on Friday is looking a bit wet.

"The 4th of July remains unsettled. A quiet start to the day will give way to showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, evening, and night. A few lingering storms continue into Saturday, but a dry 2nd half of the day is possible." - National Weather Service

It's going to be warm all week with daytime highs around 90 in Sioux Falls. There's a small chance of rain on Wednesday, but a better chance of rain on Friday night. They're saying a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms that afternoon and evening.

(National Weather Service office in Sioux Falls )

It's still pretty early, though. That chance of rain could disappear the closer we get...or it may increase. So, like I said, make plans but be prepared for surprises.