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Noem Leads Robinson by 18 Points in House Race According to NBP/NPN Poll

NPN graphic used with permission.

Incumbent Republican representative Kristi Noem holds an 18-point lead over Democratic challenger Corinna Robinson in the July 23 – 28 Nielson Brothers Polling/Northern Plains News poll.

Rep. Noem led Robinson 53.9 percent to 35.8 percent with 10.2 percent undecided. Nielson Brothers Polling asked South Dakota likely voters to use their phone dial pads to answer the survey question: “If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Kristi Noem or Democrat Corinna Robinson?”

The margin of error to this question is 4.06 percent with 574 responses.

Nielson Brothers Polling is an independent polling company in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Northern Plains News is an online news and distribution service in Harrisburg, South Dakota.

The NBP/NPN poll also asked respondents about Corinna Robinson’s favorability and name recognition. Among all likely voters polled, 10 percent had a “favorable” response, 23 percent were “unfavorable” and 8.2 percent were “undecided.”

NPN graphic used with permission.

Nearly 60 percent (58.8) didn’t recognize Robinson’s name. Republican voters have largely made up their minds, as 81.5 percent support Noem, 12.3 percent support Robinson and 6.3 percent are “undecided.”

Among Democrats, 68.1 percent support Robinson, 19.6 percent support Noem, with 12.3 percent “undecided.” Independents split between the candidates, as 41.3 percent support Noem, 37.2 percent support Robinson, with 21.5 percent “undecided”

“In spite of very low favorability and name recognition, Corinna Robinson is drawing over 35 percent of support,” said NBP partner Paul Nielson. “However, with Kristi Noem currently reaching 53.9 percent of support and with “undecideds” at just over 10 percent, Robinson will need to change some minds as she increases her recognition,” adds Nielson.

Over 18 percent (18.4) of Democrats polled indicated a “favorable” response to Robinson, with 19.2 percent “unfavorable” and 10.9 percent “undecided.” Over 50 percent (51.4) of Democrats questioned did not recognize Robinson’s name.

For Republicans, 4.5 percent had a “favorable” response, with 25. 0 percent “unfavorable” and 7.0 percent “undecided.” Nearly two-thirds (63.4 percent) of Republican respondents did not recognize Robinson’s name. Among independents or those registered in a different party, 7.6 percent indicated a “favorable” response, with 24.2 percent “unfavorable” and 3.9 percent undecided.

Like Republicans, nearly two-thirds (64.4 percent) of independents did not recognize Robinson’s name. The survey did not ask about Kristi Noem’s favorability. Instead, NBP asked about the representative’s “job approval,” to be discussed in a later release.

The schedule for the release of additional polling results from Nielson Brothers Polling and Northern Plains News:

• Thursday: Minimum wage ballot issue, voting for state legislature based on party.

• Friday: South Dakota politicians’ job performance.

• Saturday: Direction of the state, impact of politicians taking positions on same sex marriage and immigration.

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